2026 Oscars Best Director Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Best Director Commentary (Updated Nov. 13, 2025): Ryan Coogler could be on the brink of history with “Sinners,” which has quickly emerged as one of the season’s most beloved and formidable contenders.
If the film continues its surge among those in the Hollywood industry, Coogler could become the first Black filmmaker to win the Oscar for best director, a milestone that has eluded the Academy for nearly a century. With strong reviews, powerhouse performances and undeniable cultural relevance, “Sinners” could position Coogler as the filmmaker who finally breaks one of the Academy’s most glaring barriers.
However, at this stage of the season, best director may be Paul Thomas Anderson’s to lose.
With “One Battle After Another” leading the Gotham Awards and generating near-unanimous acclaim, the eight-time Oscar nominee appears to have found the sweet spot between artistic ambition and mainstream accessibility. If the film maintains momentum through the critics’ awards and major guilds, Anderson could finally be on track to claim his long-overdue directing Oscar, though stiff competition from emerging international auteurs and a few major studio heavyweights could keep the race fluid until the very end.
Don’t make the mistake of “calling it” this early in the season. Anything can happen.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.
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