2026 Oscars Predictions in Every Category
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Guillermo del Toro and Oscar Isaac on the set of “Frankenstein”
Ken Woroner/Netflix
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Aug. 21, 2025): Venice and Telluride Film Festivals are about to unfurl their red carpets, and with them comes the official launch of awards season.
The list of contenders right now is both premature and volatile — bound to shift with every deafening ovation in Venice or a breathless crowd reaction in the Colorado mountains.
And let’s be clear: there is no frontrunner. Not yet, anyway. That means the playing field is wide open, with studios all scrambling for the pole position.
Focus Features, Netflix and Neon arrive with the bulkiest arsenals. They’ll be juggling multiple ponies in the race, including Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and Palme d’Or winner Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident.”
Warner Bros. is reloading for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” while hoping to squeeze some extra mileage out of Zach Cregger’s genre smash “Weapons,” potentially launching Amy Madigan into the supporting actress conversation.
Amazon MGM is staking much of its awards hopes on Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt,” anchored by Julia Roberts in what’s being billed as her most dynamic role in years. For Roberts, is a carefully staged return to the kind of prestige lane that made her the reigning queen of Hollywood in the late ’90s and early 2000s.
The Oscar winner for “Erin Brockovich” (2000) hasn’t been a major fixture in the Oscar conversation since her nomination for “August: Osage County” (2013). That’s more than a decade of absence from the top tier of awards chatter — a lifetime in Hollywood years. “After the Hunt,” which will bow in Venice, is seen as her best shot at reclaiming that spot.
The trailer suggests something sharp, thorny and psychological, drawing comparisons to “Notes on a Scandal” and “Tár.” If the film sticks the landing, Roberts could find herself in the thick of a wide-open best actress race — the kind of overdue narrative voters love to get behind. And make no mistake, few stars can still command an audience’s attention like Roberts. Plus, it’ll be great to see Guadagnino be back in the hunt, especially after “Challengers.”
20th Century Studios faces a juggling act with its Bruce Springsteen biopic “Deliver Me From Nowhere” and James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third entry in his juggernaut franchise.
Searchlight Pictures keeps it prestige with Bradley Cooper’s third directing effort “Is This Thing On?” and Hikari’s “Rental Family,” which charmed Berlin and stars Brendan Fraser.
Sony Pictures Classics is angling for a comeback arc: Russell Crowe in James Vanderbilt’s “Nuremberg” and the still Oscar-less Ethan Hawke from the Berlin-acclaimed “Blue Moon.”
Apple remains bullish on Joseph Kosinski’s racing epic “F1,” betting artisan branch support could drive it to best picture.
Paramount could slip in a crowdpleaser with “Roofman,” pairing Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, while Lionsgate puts its chips on “Kiss of the Spider Woman” with Jennifer Lopez and Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut, “Good Fortune” with Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogen.
Latecomers and orphans always shake things up. All eyes are on Mona Fastvold, who earned her first Oscar nomination alongside partner Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.” She’s directing the musical “The Testament of Ann Lee,” with Amanda Seyfried said to be delivering the best work of her career.
Mubi is swinging for critical heat with “Die, My Love,” starring Jennifer Lawrence, and “The History of Sound,” led by Paul Mescal.
For now, the race is wide open. Let’s enjoy this time, shall we?
Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (films): “Sinners” (13); “Frankenstein” (12); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Hamnet” (9); “Jay Kelly” and “Sentimental Value” (7)
Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Netflix (28); Warner Bros. (17); Focus Features (14); Neon (13); Universal Pictures (11)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
![Avatar: Fire and Ash]()
Image Credit: Disney/YouTube !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Director
![Stellan Skarsgård]()
Image Credit: Neon !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Actor
![the smashing machine]()
Image Credit: A24 !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Actress
![If I Had Legs I'd Kick You]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Logan White/A24 !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor
![Adam Sandler]()
Image Credit: Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress
![Zoey Deutch]()
Image Credit: Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Casting
![Wicked For Good]()
Image Credit: Universal Pictures !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Screenplay
![The Secret Agent]()
Image Credit: Victor Juca !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Adapted Screenplay
![TRAIN DREAMS - (L-R) Felicity Jones as Gladys and Joel Edgerton as Robert Grainier. Cr: Netflix © 2025]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Animated Feature
![KPOP DEMON HUNTERS - When they aren't selling out stadiums, Kpop superstars Rumi, Mira and Zoey use their secret identities as badass demon hunters to protect their fans from an ever-present supernatural threat. Together, they must face their biggest enemy yet – an irresistible rival boy band of demons in disguise. ©2025 Netflix]()
Image Credit: Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Production Design
![SINNERS, Miles Caton (center), 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Cinematography
![F1: THE MOVIE, (aka F1), from left: Javier Bardem, Brad Pitt, 2025. © Warner Bros. /Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Costume Design
!["Kiss of the Spider Woman" (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)]()
Image Credit: (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Film Editing
!['Marty Supreme']()
Image Credit: A24 !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Makeup and Hairstyling
!['Mother Mary']()
Image Credit: A24 !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Sound
![A House of Dynamite]()
Image Credit: Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Visual Effects
![superman box office opening day]()
Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
![FRANKENSTEIN. - BTS - (L to R) Director Guillermo del Toro and Oscar Issac as Victor Frankenstein on the set of Frankenstein. Cr. Ken Woroner/Netflix © 2025.]()
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Song
![Diane Warren in 'Diane Warren: Relentless']()
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Feature
![Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk]()
Image Credit: Cercamon !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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International Feature
!['Sirat']()
Image Credit: Credit: Quim Vives !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
