2026 Oscars Best Actor Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Ethan Hawke
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Oscars Best Actor Commentary (Updated Nov. 28, 2025): Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio may appear in the second and third positions on the latest projections, but the two megastars remain the most secure bets for best actor nominations at this stage.
Chalamet’s work in “Marty Supreme” continues to generate some of his strongest career notices, while DiCaprio’s commanding turn in “One Battle After Another” has maintained a level of industry respect and consistency that’s difficult to shake. Both actors feel firmly embedded in the season’s narrative, reinforcing the sense that they’re headed toward another stop at the Dolby Theatre.
But the most intriguing development comes from Ethan Hawke, who is quickly emerging as this year’s potential spoiler. With four Oscar noms across acting and writing — and no wins to date — Hawke’s overdue narrative is beginning to take shape, bolstered by the growing popularity of Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon.” The idea of Hawke finally claiming his first Academy Award for a Linklater film adds an extra layer of serendipity.
Meanwhile, other viable contenders and dark horses — including Michael B. Jordan’s powerful turn in “Sinners” and Wagner Moura’s acclaimed work in “The Secret Agent” — show the category remains competitive and fluid.
And let’s not count out performances like Oscar Isaac (“Frankenstein”), Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”), Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”) and Jeremy Allen White (“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”) — who could all get boosts from Golden Globes. Critics Choice and/or SAG.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.
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![Train Dreams. Joel Edgerton as Robert Grainier in Train Dreams. Cr. BBP Train Dreams. LLC. © 2025.]()
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![ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Leonardo DiCaprio, 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection]()
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